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BNP Paribas looks forward to 2025: The Federal Reserve is expected to stay put for the whole year, and the US yield will rise. The 2025 outlook report released by BNP Paribas on Thursday shows that the yield of US Treasury bonds is expected to rise, and under the strong dollar, it will reach parity against the euro. The bank predicts that with the entry into force of the tariff measures proposed by the incoming Trump administration, the US inflation rate will start to pick up from the middle of next year, prompting the Fed to remain inactive throughout 2025. Calvin Tse, the bank's head of macro strategy for the Americas, said that customers are advised to continue to allocate low US Treasury bonds next year, because they expect that inflation will accelerate from mid-2025 after the soft landing of the economy, and the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds will be 4.65% at the end of the year. Tse also said that inflation is expected to be higher and the Fed is more hawkish next year.The Hang Seng Index closed down 1.23% overnight at 20,219.000 points. The Hang Seng Technology Index closed down 1.41% at 4,556.00 points overnight.WTI January crude oil futures closed down 0.27 USD, or 0.38% to 70.02 USD/barrel. Nymex January natural gas futures closed up 2.28% at $3.4550 per million british thermal unit.

Boosting consumption will be the top priority of economic work. Among the nine key tasks of economic work next year, "vigorously boosting consumption, improving investment efficiency and expanding domestic demand in all directions" ranks first. Among them, "consumption" has been placed in a more important position. The Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that it is necessary to grasp key links to complete the key tasks of economic work next year, and focus on boosting domestic demand, especially consumer demand. Zhao Bo, an associate professor of economics in the National Development Research Institute of Peking University, pointed out that since the Third Plenary Session of the Eleventh Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, the proportion of China's household consumption in GDP has experienced a short-term rise and a continuous decline, and rebounded around 2009, and it is currently maintained at around 40%. Zhou Qingjie, a professor at the School of Economics of Beijing Technology and Business University, said in the article "Paying attention to the key role of household consumption in expanding domestic demand" that according to the internationally accepted national economic accounting system, household consumption is one of the "four pillars" in GDP, alongside domestic private total investment, government purchase, public investment and net export. From the international comparison, the proportion of Chinese residents' consumption in GDP is at a relatively low level. Therefore, in the process of building a new development pattern in China, the effective practice of expanding domestic demand strategy depends more on the "internal" efforts of residents' departments, so that residents can spend money, rest assured and freely. (Securities Times)French President Mark Long will announce the new prime minister on the morning of 13th. On the evening of 12th local time, French President Macron returned to Paris after his visit to Poland, and said that he would announce the new prime minister on the morning of 13th local time. Macron accepted the resignation of former Prime Minister Michel Banier on December 5th, and the government of Banier became the government with the shortest term in the Fifth Republic of France.Onshore RMB against the US dollar (CNY) closed at 7.2700 yuan at 03:00 Beijing time, down 85 points from Wednesday night's close. The turnover was $42.042 billion.

U.S. policy outlook is uncertain. Lagarde lamented that the EU would "ask for it" for political uncertainty. European Central Bank President Lagarde said that the monetary policy decision of policymakers on Thursday was shrouded in the turbulent political situation in Europe. Although Lagarde did not directly mention the collapse of the French and German governments in recent weeks, she pointed out that it is not conducive to the central bank's decision-making to keep the fiscal plan and election results in suspense. At present, policymakers are still paying attention to the impact of Donald Trump's return to power. "We hope that many things will become clear in the coming months," Lagarde told reporters. "If we have discussed anything in the past two days, it is the uncertainty we are facing, whether it is the political situation from some member States or the US policy."Market news: OpenAI announced on Thursday that it is launching a new function that allows users to share the real-time video of mobile phone screen and mobile phone in the advanced voice mode of ChatGPT mobile application. This way, users don't have to upload photos or describe the surrounding environment in chat.Bitcoin fell below $100,000/piece, down 1.15% in the day.